The rule my agent uses to measure what works, and the prompt.
A reel counts as a winner only when its views are at least twice its account's median, from ten or more of that account's own recent reels. Here's the rule, a prompt that has an AI agent apply it to your niche, and a sheet that checks its sums.
If you post short videos and want to learn from what's working in your niche by its numbers, not by what feels popular.
Twice
its account's median views, or more, before a reel counts as a winner.
10+ reels
of the same account's own recent reels behind that median. Fewer, and nothing is called.
7 days
the wait before a new reel is called. Until then it's marked settling, not a winner or a miss.
What’s inside
- The rule in full: the winner line, what to leave out, and when to wait
- A prompt for an AI agent with a browser: 10 to 15 accounts, their latest 12 to 20 reels, the winners and the misses
- A sheet that works out each account's median, each reel's multiple and its band
- What to note when you watch the winners and the misses
The rule
Each account is compared only with itself. A small account and a big one each get their own median.
Twice its own median
A reel is a winner only when its views are at least twice its account's median. The median is the middle number once the views are sorted, so one viral reel can't drag it up the way it drags an average.
Ten or more of its own reels
The median comes from ten or more of that account's own recent reels, all read in one sitting. Compare reels with reels, not with carousels, photos or long videos.
Leave pinned reels out
Pinned reels were chosen, and they're usually older. They don't count toward the median.
Let new reels settle
A reel under 7 days old is still collecting views, so its multiple will still move. Mark it settling and look again after a week.
Misses: under half
For the sheet, a reel under half its account's median is a miss. That line is mine, for picking clear contrasts to watch. The winner line is the rule.
Run it on your niche
My agent applies this rule with its own scripts. The prompt has any AI agent that can open web pages apply it the same way. It's in outlier-prompt.txt below, ready to copy from COPY FROM HERE to COPY TO HERE. The sheet is outlier-sheet.csv.
Pick an AI that can open web pages
- Use an AI agent that opens pages in a browser. It has to open each account and read the view counts.
- Menu and mode names in these tools change. Go by the words on your own screen.
Fill in your niche and paste the prompt
- Fill in the blanks in square brackets: your niche, who you make videos for, and any accounts you already know. The agent finds the rest, 10 to 15 in all.
- Paste the whole prompt as your first message.
Let it pull, compare and sort
- It pulls each account's latest 12 to 20 reels with their views, and leaves out pinned reels. Then it works out each median and sorts every reel: winner, normal, miss or settling.
- It hands back a summary per account, the rows for your sheet, and what the winners share that the misses lack.
Check its sums in the sheet
- Open outlier-sheet.csv in Google Sheets or Excel. Paste the agent's rows under the EXAMPLE rows, starting in column A.
- Copy the account_median, multiple and band cells from the last EXAMPLE row and paste them down over your rows. Then delete the EXAMPLE rows.
- If the sheet and the agent disagree on a median, trust the sheet and check the views.
Watch the winners and the misses
- Watch every winner, and a few misses from the same accounts. Fill in first_line, format, face, what_is_shown and notes as you go.
The sheet
outlier-sheet.csv has these columns and ten EXAMPLE rows for one made-up account, so you can see the formulas work: one winner, one miss and eight normal.
account
- What goes in it
- The account's handle, written the same way on every row.
reel_url
- What goes in it
- The link to the reel.
posted
- What goes in it
- The date it went up, as year-month-day, such as .
views
- What goes in it
- The view count as a whole number. Write 12.3K as 12300 and put rounded in notes.
account_median, worked out
- What goes in it
- The median of that account's views on the sheet. It shows under 10 until the account has ten reels with views:
multiple, worked out
- What goes in it
- The reel's views divided by its account's median:
band, worked out
- What goes in it
- winner at 2 or more, miss under 0.5, normal in between, and settling while the reel is under 7 days old:
first_line
- What goes in it
- The first words said or shown, word for word.
format
- What goes in it
- Talking head, screen recording, split screen, words on video, b-roll.
face
- What goes in it
- Y if a person is on camera, N if not.
what_is_shown
- What goes in it
- What's on screen most of the time: a face, a real screen, a product, a diagram.
notes
- What goes in it
- The first three seconds, the ask at the end, and rounded if a count was rounded.
What to note when you watch
Watch the winners and the misses from the same account side by side. For each one, write down four things.
The first three seconds
What's said, what's on screen and any words on screen, word for word.
What's on screen
A face, a real screen, a product, a whiteboard, b-roll or a diagram. Note whether it shows real work.
Face or not
Is a person on camera? From the start, later, or never?
The ask
What it asks at the end, such as comment a word, follow or save. Or nothing. Write the exact words.
What it found in the video
Same creator, same topic. The reel with his face and his real files was one of his best. A faceless map of his company was his worst.
One account is an idea, not a rule
A trait counts as worth testing when two or more winners share it and a miss on the same account lacks it. Borrow the shape, never the words.
Before you start
Logged-out pages change, and some accounts won't load. On 30 September 2026, a logged-out Instagram page showed only an account's latest 12 reels. Scrolling for more asked for a login.
If three or more of those 12 are pinned, fewer than ten are left to count. That account gets no winners until you have more.
If the agent can't read an account, it should say so and skip it, never guess. You can always open the reels yourself and copy the views into the sheet.
Take the files
The rule and the prompt
outlier-prompt.txt
The rule in full, the prompt to paste into an AI agent with a browser, what to note when you watch, and how to use the sheet.
DownloadThe sheet
outlier-sheet.csv
Twelve columns, with the median, the multiple and the band worked out for you. Open it in Google Sheets or Excel.
DownloadOpen a .csv in Google Sheets (File, then Import) or Excel.
The EXAMPLE rows in the sheet are made-up numbers to show the formulas working. Nothing here is a result; it is a rule, a prompt and a sheet.
A winner shows what got views on one account. It doesn't prove why, and it isn't a promise the same thing will work for you.
The median formula uses FILTER, which works in Google Sheets and current versions of Excel.
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